Freedom Insider

By StarCityFan

To make a long story short, I have been persuaded by my friends and fellow fans that my WPS boycott is going rather too far. So I have renewed my season tickets and am getting back into the fannish swing of things. This doesn’t mean that I’ve forgiven Hope Solo, the Atlanta Beat general manager who refuses to admit that Solo still needs to apologize, or the league for not stepping in. And there will still be consequences. I’ve done a lot in support of the Freedom and WPS that I didn’t really enjoy doing very much. That’s done. From here on out, I’m going to do what I like, and the heck with the rest. Fortunately for those of you who like to read this blog, writing about the Freedom is something I very much enjoy doing. So enough about me – let’s move on to that.

How big was Saturday’s win? Just about everyone realized that Saturday’s match against Sky Blue FC, our rival for the fourth and final playoff spot, was a big deal. However, math major that I am, I computed the odds and figured out just how big a deal it was. So I’m going to give the standard win-or-go-home playoff game a 100, that being the difference between the odds of advancing if you win (100%) and if you lose (0%). Doing a quick-and-dirty calculation based on the possibilities ensuing from Saturday’s match, I figured that if the Freedom had lost, they’d have about a 3% chance of making the playoffs – if you simplify the possibilities to just wins and losses, there was only 1 scenario out of a possible 32 that had Washington in the playoffs: the Freedom would have had to win both of their remaining matches, while Sky Blue lost all three of theirs. On the other hand, with a win, there are 26 permutations out of 32 that put the Freedom in the playoffs. Assuming that all possibilities are equally likely, that’s an 81% chance of getting in. So the StarCityFan Significance Factor (SSF) is 81-3, or 78, which isn’t that much less than a playoff match.

How big is Sunday’s game? Thus emboldened by my initial calculations, I put together a more sophisticated model to figure out how important Sunday’s match against Chicago is, given the current standings. I was somewhat surprised at the results. My current estimate of the odds of the Freedom making the playoffs is 70.48%. (I’m only putting in the two decimal places to keep from putting down a very approximate-looking 70%. Even I’m not that anal!) That’s based on weighting all of the possible results of the remaining four relevant matches (two each for the Freedom and Sky Blue), including ties. If Washington wins on Sunday, that goes up to 92.8%. If they lose, that drops to 30.4%. So the SSF is 62, still a pretty big number (A tie leaves them at 80.8%, so not losing is much more important than winning). More significantly, losing would mean that the Freedom have lost control of their destiny: even if they beat Atlanta the following weekend, they could still miss out on the playoffs if Sky Blue wins their two remaining matches.

But how good is Chicago, really? You’d think we wouldn’t have to worry too much about a team that would consider themselves fortunate at this point to finish in fifth place out of seven teams. However, they just had a solid showing against Philadelphia, winning 2-0, and their signing of Spanish international Veronica Boquete, fresh off playing for the undefeated W-League champion Buffalo Flash, has paid dividends already as she got the game-winning goal in that match. With nothing to play for, they would certainly like nothing better than to mess up the Freedom’s finish as they may well have done already with the Independence. Meanwhile, Washington is far and away the worst road team in the league, with a mere one road win on the season, and that one was against the Atlanta Beat before their infusion of Athletica players. But if they’re going to pull one out, now’s the time. You might remember that last year the Freedom went into Chicago needing a win and pulled one out off a superb late goal from Allie Long.

Can the Freedom earn a home playoff game? The surprising answer to this one is yes. If Washington wins out while Philadelphia loses their one remaining match, then the first playoff match will be at the SoccerPlex, just as it was last year. That may seem like a long shot, but really the only unlikely part of it would be Washington beating Chicago. After that, the Freedom come home to play the last place Atlanta Beat. Philadelphia, meanwhile, has to finish by flying to the West Coast and playing FC Gold Pride, who have only lost one home match all season. So, particularly given the Freedom’s road ineptness this year, this is certainly something we should be hoping for.

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By StarCityFan

Amazingly, despite the months-long drought of wins, the Freedom are still in the driver’s seat when it comes to making the playoffs. They’re competing against the Red Stars, Sky Blue FC and (just barely) the Beat for the fourth and final playoff spot. If they win out, none of those teams can catch them. That may sound tough, but they’re the only one of these teams that has no more matches against teams that are definitely bound for the playoffs, and all but one of their four remaining matches are at home.

Winning out would give them 34 points, but my prediction is that, given the other teams’ schedules and past performance, 29 would probably be sufficient.

The next two matches, both at home, are key as both are against their primary rivals, the Red Stars this Thursday and Sky Blue on Saturday the 28th. Games like these are six-point swings: the difference between winning and losing is the difference between being three points ahead of the opposition or three points behind. Two wins would give the Freedom 28 points with a road match against Chicago and a home match against a floundering Atlanta squad left. Just one point from either of those games should put them over the top, and if it’s not enough, then at least the must-win final match comes against the seventh-place team.

Sky Blue has a game in hand but a much tougher schedule. In addition to playing Washington here, they face the three playoff-bound teams plus Atlanta in Atlanta, where the Beat have actually been able to win a few. The matches against FC Gold Pride, Philadelphia and Boston are at Yurcak Field, which you’d think would be an advantage but has actually been the opposite. Sky Blue is only 1-4-3 on their home soil (guess they haven’t been paying attention to the “Defend Your Turf” campaign).

The Red Stars, other than the home-and-home against the Freedom, play the Independence and Gold Pride in Chicago and would be fortunate to pick up anything more than single points from each of those matches.

The Beat have a home-and-home against the high-flying Boston Breakers, plus they host Gold Pride and Sky Blue before ending the season at the SoccerPlex. They also have a game in hand on the Freedom but are five points back.

Coloring Thursday’s match against the Red Stars will be World Cup qualification matches by various European teams. Sonia Bompastor will be up with the French National Team, while the Red Stars’ Katie Chapman and Karen Carney will be playing for England. Additionally, the Red Stars will be missing defensive stalwart Kate Markgraf due to a concussion. These are all significant absences. Some have expressed a concern over losing Sonia’s presence in the Freedom attack, but I’m more concerned about not having her there to disrupt attacks coming from Washington’s left flank – many’s the time she’s either singlehandedly prevented balls coming in from that corner, or worked with Becky Sauerbrunn to do so.

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By StarCityFan

[Editor's note: The following represents StarCityFan's own personal opinion and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Jim Higgins (owner/operator of Freedom Insider), Freedom Insider nor any other members of the Freedom Fighters.]

There are several supporters groups for the teams in Women’s Professional Soccer. Despite the team rivalries, we are all first and foremost WPS fans, so there’s considerable solidarity among us. When the Boston or Chicago fans are coming down to the Soccerplex for a match and need travel advice, I’m glad to provide it. When I went to St. Louis for last year’s All-Star Game, I had dinner with members of Laclede’s Army. When I’ve gone up to Boston, the Riptide have allowed me to share in the repast from their tailgate parties. So you can imagine how I felt after coming home from last Wednesday’s Freedom match, going online, and finding that Hope Solo had posted the following to Twitter:

To all the boston fans and especially the young kids that I didn’t sign autographs for I’m sorry. I will not stand for…An organization who can so blatantly disrespect the athletes that come to play. Perhaps the WPS or Boston themselves…Can finally take a stance to the profanity, racism and crude remarks that are made by their so called ‘fan club’…To the true fans, I hope to catch you at the next game. Thanks for your support and love for the game.

Now, there’s no love lost between Hope Solo and the Riptide, who sometimes refer to her as “Public Enemy No. 1,” but this is taking things to a whole ‘nother level. Such an accusation, if upheld, would lead to severing any ties between the team and the supporters group and barring the members from attending any future matches. Note also that it’s actually a two-part accusation:

1. “profanity, racism, and crude remarks” were made at Wednesday night’s match
2. This is standard operating procedure for the “fan club”

Needless to say, the Riptide and everyone who knew them was shocked at this statement, and the Riptide quickly posted a rebuttal on their website, denying any such behavior and concluding with

It’s fine if Hope Solo doesn’t like us. It’s fine if she lets us get into her head and upset her during games. It’s not fine that she accused us of racism, and we won’t stand for it. We ask that she either explain her remarks or retract them.

I sent an email to the league office the next morning, noting the seriousness of the allegations and insisting that an investigation be initiated to determine what actually happened. Speculation was rampant online about what Hope Solo actually heard, if anything, or if she was just carrying out a grudge against a supporters group after she let them get into her head in a match her team lost.

The following afternoon, Atlanta’s general manager, Shawn McGee, announced that the matter was being looked into:

At this point, we have no comment. We are in the process of gathering information regarding the incidences at the match last night and will work with the Breakers management to ensure that everything gets handled appropriately. Racism and inappropriate comments of any nature have no place in the beautiful game. The Breakers, the Beat and WPS will work together ensure that the pitch is a place to celebrate the sport and the great athleticism of our players…and is a safe place to do so.

That didn’t do much to squelch speculation. On Friday, it was announced that a statement would be forthcoming Monday, and late that day such a statement appeared. I defy anyone to find it who isn’t looking for it, and it’s not accessible at all from the main WPS website, but you can read it here on Atlanta’s section of the website or here on Boston’s. As it turns out, there was some “abusive language” used during the game, though none of it could be attributed to Riptide. The most relevant portion, from a supporter’s perspective, was the following:

The coordinated review of the Breakers and the Beat also conclusively showed that at no time was there any organized or coordinated singing or chanting of racially insensitive slogans or profanity by the Riptide supporters group or any other group of fans. The Beat regret that a member of their organization used social media to make public allegations against the Breakers organization and its supporters group without first bringing her concerns to the attention of either club. The Beat and its players understand that the remarks were from a few individuals and not representative of the Breakers organization or the Riptide supporters group.

I find this seriously lacking, for the following reasons:

1. There’s no actual apology or consequences here. If I falsely or erroneously accused one of my company’s best customers of racism, in a very public way that could potentially have driven them out of business, then I would be lucky to keep my job. At the very least, I would have to make a very clear and abject apology to said customer. Why isn’t Hope Solo required to do this?
2. There is an implication that, even if the Riptide as a whole didn’t make abusive comments, individual members did (Just see the comments posted below the statement, particularly the Atlanta version, for people who have accepted this implication). Unless there is clear evidence that an actual member of the supporters group made such statements, the group and all its members should be exonerated.
3. Even if this statement were adequate, it’s buried in the WPS website. Hope Solo has over 1800 followers on Twitter, most of whom, unless they’re reincarnations of Sherlock Holmes, still think that the Boston supporters are a pack of racists.

I sent an email to the league office and to the two teams noting my objections to the statement and had a short back-and-forth with the Atlanta GM, who was unrepentant. At this point my impression is that WPS is turning into yet another league that, rather than putting the fans first, is intent on coddling its marquee players no matter what they do. If you agree with me, or at least think that the official response to Hope Solo’s accusations is inadequate, please take a few minutes to send an email to the following to register your objections:

• WPS Chief Operating Officer Mary Harvey – Mary(dot)Harvey(at)womensprosoccer(dot)com
• Atlanta Beat General Manager Shawn McGee – SMcGee(at)theatlantabeat(dot)com
• Boston Breakers General Manager Andrew Crossley – ACrossley(at)bostonbreakers(dot)com

(Remove the parentheses and change the words to their corresponding punctuation to create a legal email address – as annoyed as I am at this point, I will still do them the courtesy of not exposing their addresses to spam email harvesters.)

If you think I’m overreacting, feel free to tell me by commenting below.

As for me, at this point I am boycotting WPS other than using up the season tickets that I’ve already paid for. I will not be writing any more WPS-related blog posts, buying any merchandise, renewing my season tickets, nor continuing to operate the Freedom Fighters supporters group until our cohorts in Riptide have received an apology proportional to the serious accusation leveled by Ms. Solo. The one relevant expenditure I will be making is to have a t-shirt made that reads “Hope Solo Called Me A Racist”, which I will be wearing to the few remaining WPS matches I plan to attend, most notably the one on September 11, when the Freedom take on the Atlanta Beat.

Kevin W. Parker
“StarCityFan”
Ex-President
Freedom Fighters
The Washington Freedom Supporters Club

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By StarCityFan

The Freedom went through the entire months of June and July without a single victory. You’d think that would kill any hope of making the playoffs, but it hasn’t. In fact, the Freedom are currently in fifth place, one point out of the fourth and final playoff position.

Right now I’m predicting a 2-2-2 finish, which gives them 28 points come the end of the season and should be just enough for the fourth and final playoff spot. Their next game is at Rutgers against a struggling Sky Blue FC team. I’m figuring a tie in that match. After that, they play the league-leading FC Gold Pride on the West Coast, which I doubt they’ll get points out of. Then they finish the season with three out of four games at home: Chicago on Thursday the 19th (one of the games added to the schedule after Athletica folded), Sky Blue on the 28th and Atlanta on September 11. The one final road game is against the Red Stars on September 5. I figure they should be able to get at least two wins and a tie out of that stretch.

All this of course assumes that their performance against Philadelphia on Wednesday night is now the standard, rather than how they’ve played in most of their prior summer matches.

One promising note is that the surprise of Wednesday’s lineup was the lack of surprise: Every player was in her accustomed position on the field: no more benching Cat Whitehill, throwing Nikki Marshall up front, or pulling Sonia Bompastor to the back line. I get the feeling that Jim Gabarra just told the team, “Okay, I’m not going to tweak, I’m just going to put our best XI out their in their best positions. The rest is up to you.” To the relief of Freedom fans everywhere, the team responded, pulling together and working hard for 90 minutes to produce a convincing 2-0 win against the No. 2 team in the league.

So I’m hoping that that result is the new normal, while June and July will become just a bad dream. Last year set a possible template, as the Freedom came off a three-game losing streak going into their final six matches but finished 4-1-1 to make it into third place. That, interestingly, also started with a weeknight match in New Jersey.

And, for what it’s worth, the Freedom had a similar season in 2003, when they started strong, stumbled badly in midseason, then recovered with help from a series of outstanding performances by Abby Wambach to claw into the playoffs in the fourth and final position. From there, they won two consecutive away games, one against the regular-season champions, to claim the final WUSA championship. Let’s hope that history repeats itself this year.

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By StarCityFan

Washington Freedom (4-6-5, 17 points, 4th place) at Atlanta Beat (3-7-4, 13 points, 7th place)
Wednesday, July 28, 7:30 p.m. EDT
KSU Soccer Stadium, Kennesaw, Ga.
All-time series: Freedom lead 2-0-0
Last meeting: Freedom 2, Beat 0

Once upon a time this looked like an easy three points. Unlike Philadelphia, Atlanta was behaving like a proper expansion team, losing five matches in a row and being little threat to the competition. Of course, that was before the St. Louis Athletica folded and Atlanta picked up a bunch of their key players: Hope Solo, Lori Chalupny, Tina Ellertson, Eniola Aluko and Aya Miyama.

More recently, alas, it’s Washington that’s looked like the expansion team. Since the beginning of June, the Freedom have gone 0-4-4 and are on a three-game losing streak, while the Beat have gone 3-2-3 and are on a two-game winning streak.

When these two teams last played, the Freedom won 2-0 thanks in large part to a stellar, seven-save performance from Erin McLeod in goal. Unfortunately, McLeod is now gone for the season, and Washington will instead rely on their single pickup from the Athletica refugees, rookie goalkeeper Ashlyn Harris. Harris was the primary goalkeeper for the North Carolina Tarheels her sophomore and senior years and split the time her junior year. She’s also spent significant time on the US U-19 and U-21 teams as well as receiving a callup to the full national team last year.

Players to worry about:

Hope Solo – Despite her well-deserved reputation, the Freedom always seem to have Solo’s number. Their all-time record against Team Solo is 2-0-1, with the draw being the first match between the two teams, in which the Freedom managed to claw back from a 3-1 deficit with a header from Sonia Bompastor in stoppage time to eke out a draw. However, this trend is not something we can count on. If Hope is on her usual form, it could be a frustrating night.

Johanna Rasmussen – With Eniola Aluko away on national team duty and Ramona Bachmann not having much impact so far, the Danish forward is the Beat’s primary scoring threat, though with only two goals on the season that’s not saying much. Still, the Freedom’s defense, backed by a rookie goalkeeper, may be vulnerable.

Kia McNeill – If I were to compose a drinking game for this match, one of the entries would be “Kia McNeill fouls Abby Wambach (Double if she gets carded).” And against the Freedom, McNeill has a knack for being in the wrong place at the wrong time: Bompastor scored her aforementioned header goal after the ball bounced off McNeill’s head first, then in last year’s match at RFK Homare Sawa’s shot bounced off McNeill’s leg and into the net for the game-winning goal. We’ll have to see if the Hope/Kia curse holds or gets broken.

Players to root for:

Ashlyn Harris – Well, duh! Goalkeeper staffing has been an adventure for the Freedom through much of the WPS era, first with Erin McLeod’s green card issues, then with coach Nicci Wright having to don the gloves when Kati Jo Spisak got injured while McLeod was on national team duty. On the other hand, there seems to be a WPS tradition of unsung goalkeepers rising to the task, with Jillian Loyden last year earning Player of the Week honors when she stepped in for Hope Solo, and Karen Bardsley this year proving to be All-World after Jenni Branam was injured. Let’s hope Harris is another name to add to this list.

Abby Wambach – My impression is that the key difference between the Freedom and FC Gold Pride last Sunday was that their world-class striker was better than our world-class striker. Abby had as many chances at Marta, but they all seemed to go off-target or right to the goalkeeper. She seemed to start off the year strongly but has faded in the stretch. Washington needs a Player of the Week performance out of her again, and soon.

Sarah Huffman – Huffy would be my Woman of the Match from Sunday. Full of energy and all over the field, she worked hard to make things happen. Her finest moment might have been one occasion when she was triple-teamed when deep on the right flank but nevertheless cut and weaved into enough room to get off a promising-looking cross. We need more of that.

The bottom line is that, barring a possible Sky Blue FC collapse, there are no easy points any more. Atlanta has bolstered its lineup, FCGP is unstoppable, Philadelphia is formidable and Chicago and Boston are getting their acts together. Washington needs to do the same if they’re to remain in the playoff hunt.

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