Freedom Insider

By StarCityFan

To make a long story short, I have been persuaded by my friends and fellow fans that my WPS boycott is going rather too far. So I have renewed my season tickets and am getting back into the fannish swing of things. This doesn’t mean that I’ve forgiven Hope Solo, the Atlanta Beat general manager who refuses to admit that Solo still needs to apologize, or the league for not stepping in. And there will still be consequences. I’ve done a lot in support of the Freedom and WPS that I didn’t really enjoy doing very much. That’s done. From here on out, I’m going to do what I like, and the heck with the rest. Fortunately for those of you who like to read this blog, writing about the Freedom is something I very much enjoy doing. So enough about me – let’s move on to that.

How big was Saturday’s win? Just about everyone realized that Saturday’s match against Sky Blue FC, our rival for the fourth and final playoff spot, was a big deal. However, math major that I am, I computed the odds and figured out just how big a deal it was. So I’m going to give the standard win-or-go-home playoff game a 100, that being the difference between the odds of advancing if you win (100%) and if you lose (0%). Doing a quick-and-dirty calculation based on the possibilities ensuing from Saturday’s match, I figured that if the Freedom had lost, they’d have about a 3% chance of making the playoffs – if you simplify the possibilities to just wins and losses, there was only 1 scenario out of a possible 32 that had Washington in the playoffs: the Freedom would have had to win both of their remaining matches, while Sky Blue lost all three of theirs. On the other hand, with a win, there are 26 permutations out of 32 that put the Freedom in the playoffs. Assuming that all possibilities are equally likely, that’s an 81% chance of getting in. So the StarCityFan Significance Factor (SSF) is 81-3, or 78, which isn’t that much less than a playoff match.

How big is Sunday’s game? Thus emboldened by my initial calculations, I put together a more sophisticated model to figure out how important Sunday’s match against Chicago is, given the current standings. I was somewhat surprised at the results. My current estimate of the odds of the Freedom making the playoffs is 70.48%. (I’m only putting in the two decimal places to keep from putting down a very approximate-looking 70%. Even I’m not that anal!) That’s based on weighting all of the possible results of the remaining four relevant matches (two each for the Freedom and Sky Blue), including ties. If Washington wins on Sunday, that goes up to 92.8%. If they lose, that drops to 30.4%. So the SSF is 62, still a pretty big number (A tie leaves them at 80.8%, so not losing is much more important than winning). More significantly, losing would mean that the Freedom have lost control of their destiny: even if they beat Atlanta the following weekend, they could still miss out on the playoffs if Sky Blue wins their two remaining matches.

But how good is Chicago, really? You’d think we wouldn’t have to worry too much about a team that would consider themselves fortunate at this point to finish in fifth place out of seven teams. However, they just had a solid showing against Philadelphia, winning 2-0, and their signing of Spanish international Veronica Boquete, fresh off playing for the undefeated W-League champion Buffalo Flash, has paid dividends already as she got the game-winning goal in that match. With nothing to play for, they would certainly like nothing better than to mess up the Freedom’s finish as they may well have done already with the Independence. Meanwhile, Washington is far and away the worst road team in the league, with a mere one road win on the season, and that one was against the Atlanta Beat before their infusion of Athletica players. But if they’re going to pull one out, now’s the time. You might remember that last year the Freedom went into Chicago needing a win and pulled one out off a superb late goal from Allie Long.

Can the Freedom earn a home playoff game? The surprising answer to this one is yes. If Washington wins out while Philadelphia loses their one remaining match, then the first playoff match will be at the SoccerPlex, just as it was last year. That may seem like a long shot, but really the only unlikely part of it would be Washington beating Chicago. After that, the Freedom come home to play the last place Atlanta Beat. Philadelphia, meanwhile, has to finish by flying to the West Coast and playing FC Gold Pride, who have only lost one home match all season. So, particularly given the Freedom’s road ineptness this year, this is certainly something we should be hoping for.

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By StarCityFan

Amazingly, despite the months-long drought of wins, the Freedom are still in the driver’s seat when it comes to making the playoffs. They’re competing against the Red Stars, Sky Blue FC and (just barely) the Beat for the fourth and final playoff spot. If they win out, none of those teams can catch them. That may sound tough, but they’re the only one of these teams that has no more matches against teams that are definitely bound for the playoffs, and all but one of their four remaining matches are at home.

Winning out would give them 34 points, but my prediction is that, given the other teams’ schedules and past performance, 29 would probably be sufficient.

The next two matches, both at home, are key as both are against their primary rivals, the Red Stars this Thursday and Sky Blue on Saturday the 28th. Games like these are six-point swings: the difference between winning and losing is the difference between being three points ahead of the opposition or three points behind. Two wins would give the Freedom 28 points with a road match against Chicago and a home match against a floundering Atlanta squad left. Just one point from either of those games should put them over the top, and if it’s not enough, then at least the must-win final match comes against the seventh-place team.

Sky Blue has a game in hand but a much tougher schedule. In addition to playing Washington here, they face the three playoff-bound teams plus Atlanta in Atlanta, where the Beat have actually been able to win a few. The matches against FC Gold Pride, Philadelphia and Boston are at Yurcak Field, which you’d think would be an advantage but has actually been the opposite. Sky Blue is only 1-4-3 on their home soil (guess they haven’t been paying attention to the “Defend Your Turf” campaign).

The Red Stars, other than the home-and-home against the Freedom, play the Independence and Gold Pride in Chicago and would be fortunate to pick up anything more than single points from each of those matches.

The Beat have a home-and-home against the high-flying Boston Breakers, plus they host Gold Pride and Sky Blue before ending the season at the SoccerPlex. They also have a game in hand on the Freedom but are five points back.

Coloring Thursday’s match against the Red Stars will be World Cup qualification matches by various European teams. Sonia Bompastor will be up with the French National Team, while the Red Stars’ Katie Chapman and Karen Carney will be playing for England. Additionally, the Red Stars will be missing defensive stalwart Kate Markgraf due to a concussion. These are all significant absences. Some have expressed a concern over losing Sonia’s presence in the Freedom attack, but I’m more concerned about not having her there to disrupt attacks coming from Washington’s left flank – many’s the time she’s either singlehandedly prevented balls coming in from that corner, or worked with Becky Sauerbrunn to do so.

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By StarCityFan

The Freedom went through the entire months of June and July without a single victory. You’d think that would kill any hope of making the playoffs, but it hasn’t. In fact, the Freedom are currently in fifth place, one point out of the fourth and final playoff position.

Right now I’m predicting a 2-2-2 finish, which gives them 28 points come the end of the season and should be just enough for the fourth and final playoff spot. Their next game is at Rutgers against a struggling Sky Blue FC team. I’m figuring a tie in that match. After that, they play the league-leading FC Gold Pride on the West Coast, which I doubt they’ll get points out of. Then they finish the season with three out of four games at home: Chicago on Thursday the 19th (one of the games added to the schedule after Athletica folded), Sky Blue on the 28th and Atlanta on September 11. The one final road game is against the Red Stars on September 5. I figure they should be able to get at least two wins and a tie out of that stretch.

All this of course assumes that their performance against Philadelphia on Wednesday night is now the standard, rather than how they’ve played in most of their prior summer matches.

One promising note is that the surprise of Wednesday’s lineup was the lack of surprise: Every player was in her accustomed position on the field: no more benching Cat Whitehill, throwing Nikki Marshall up front, or pulling Sonia Bompastor to the back line. I get the feeling that Jim Gabarra just told the team, “Okay, I’m not going to tweak, I’m just going to put our best XI out their in their best positions. The rest is up to you.” To the relief of Freedom fans everywhere, the team responded, pulling together and working hard for 90 minutes to produce a convincing 2-0 win against the No. 2 team in the league.

So I’m hoping that that result is the new normal, while June and July will become just a bad dream. Last year set a possible template, as the Freedom came off a three-game losing streak going into their final six matches but finished 4-1-1 to make it into third place. That, interestingly, also started with a weeknight match in New Jersey.

And, for what it’s worth, the Freedom had a similar season in 2003, when they started strong, stumbled badly in midseason, then recovered with help from a series of outstanding performances by Abby Wambach to claw into the playoffs in the fourth and final position. From there, they won two consecutive away games, one against the regular-season champions, to claim the final WUSA championship. Let’s hope that history repeats itself this year.

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By StarCityFan

By the numbers:
Position in standings: 4th (final playoff position)
Standings points: 17
Record: 4-3-5
Goals scored: 17 (3rd in league)
Goals allowed: 14 (5th in league)
Home record: 3-1-3 (2nd in league)
Away record: 1-2-2 (6th in league)

We’re halfway through the season, and the Freedom are in playoff position, though just barely and only after a fairly favorable schedule, with seven home games out of 12. And the Freedom are the most home-biased team in the league, with one of the best records at home but one of the worst on the road (The only worse road team is the expansion Atlanta Beat, who have had a hard time winning anywhere).

In fact, I think the Freedom should be in a better position than they are. If you look at the schedule and assume they should generally beat the teams below them and lose to the teams ahead of them, they’ve been upset more often than they’ve upset the opposition. They’ve faced the fifth place Chicago Red Stars twice and the sixth place Boston Breakers twice each, all at the SoccerPlex, but only have three points to show for it out of a possible 12 (one loss and three draws). On the other side, they beat Philadelphia at home and tied FC Gold Pride and Sky Blue FC on the road, and of those the only one that feels like a genuine upset is the Gold Pride match. But let’s be generous and say the Freedom picked up five upset points but while letting 12 upset points go for a net of minus-7.

Basically, that means that if Washington had kept to form they’d be in second place, one point behind the league leaders, instead of fourth and eight points behind.

But that’s all water under the bridge. Instead, let’s look ahead. As I’ve noted before, the Freedom start out the second half of the season with six out of eight games on the road, and the only two home games are against the top two teams in the league. But there are some glimmers of hope. Two of the road matches are against the Boston Breakers in Boston, where the Breakers have yet to win this year – heck, they’re worse at home than any other team is on the road. On the other hand, the Washington Freedom have never, ever beaten a Boston team in Boston, going back to the WUSA days (You can even extend this to the W-League days on a technicality, because the W-League Boston Renegades played in Framingham). Perhaps it’s high time.

With regard to play on the field, the Freedom have combined old problems with new ones. Washington has always had an issue of consistency throughout the WPS era: if the offense is successful, the defense is inept. If the defense holds on for a shutout, the offense doesn’t score. Freedom matches seem to be either 0-0 or 4-3, without a whole lot in between. The new issue is holding onto a lead, something I’ve discussed before and so won’t go into again.

I think we have the talent to compete at the highest levels in this league. Gold Pride may have Marta, but we have Abby Wambach. Philadelphia has Karina LeBlanc and Allison Falk, but we have Erin McLeod and Cat Whitehill. Sky Blue has Heather O’Reilly and Rosana, but we have Sonia Bompastor and Homare Sawa. I think it comes down to desire, teamwork and focus. We’ll find out in the remaining 12 matches if the Freedom have enough of all of those to remain in contention.

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By StarCityFan

If you wanted to see fireworks on Sunday night at the SoccerPlex, you had to stick around for the pyrotechnic kind because there weren’t any during the game, as neither the Washington Freedom nor the Chicago Red Stars could put the ball in the net.

The Freedom’s problem was that they seldom seemed to be able to get their attack organized enough to make a serious threat. I can only remember a handful of exciting moments that weren’t from set pieces. In the seventh minute, Lene Mykjåland got the ball and headed for the back line. She passed the ball over to Abby Wambach then got it back right as she passed through the line, but she wasn’t able to get a shot off before Chicago goalkeeper Jillian Loyden nabbed it. As the first half was winding down, Wambach got behind the defense but from a challenging angle on the left side, and her shot went just barely wide of the right post. In the 60th minute, Lene did a beautiful job of weaving through the defense in order to get off a centering pass, but Abby didn’t run onto it in time. Two minutes later, Abby and Sarah Huffman came charging downfield against a retreating defense. Abby’s centering pass was right to Sarah’s feet in front of goal, but Huffy was called offsides on the play. In the 77th minute, Nikki Marshall, now playing forward, had a two-on-one break with Abby, but Nikki’s cross from the left flank was off-target and cleared for a corner kick.

Chicago had far more chances, but either the Freedom back line or Erin McLeod came up with a big play, the shot was from such a distance that McLeod just gobbled it up, or the shot was taken by Ella Masar, who despite her two-goal game last week seemed unable to hit the broad side of a barn from three yards away.

In the very early going, a Red Stars player whose identity I didn’t catch made an acrobatic over-the-back kick off a throw-in that sprung Masar into the box just outside the left post, but her shot went wide left. Ella had the ball in front of goal in the 14th minute but was stripped from behind. Cristiane wasted an extended Chicago possession two minutes later by taking a shot from 25 yards out that went high. Two minutes after that, Chicago had a two-on-one break, but Masar’s shot went over the goal from about 10 yards out. In the 35th minute, Chicago took a free kick from 35 yards out that Erin tipped over the bar. The resulting corner kick provided a nice heading opportunity, but the ball went straight to Erin. Cristiane sprung Masar in the 37th minute, but Erin managed to save the shot. Four minutes later, Cristiane got through with only Marshall to beat, but Nikki managed to knock the ball out for a corner kick. The corner kick resulted in one of those heart-in-mouth sequences when the ball is being knocked around among a scrum of players right in front of goal. A Chicago player who couldn’t have been much more than a yard out knocked the ball toward goal, but somehow Sonia Bompastor managed to get in the way of it and clear it out of danger.

Three minutes into the second half, Cat Whitehill made a bad clearance to Cristiane, who took a quick shot trying to catch McLeod off her guard, but Erin was ready and managed to grab it. Megan Rapinoe wasted another Red Stars possession in the 54th minute by taking a low shot from about 20 yards out that went wide left. A free kick from 30 yards in the next minute went right to Erin, as did a long shot that concluded another passing sequence a minute later. I was beginning to wonder if Chicago had any other strategies in mind.

Shortly thereafter, Masar got in a footrace with Whitehill, but despite the speed differential, Ella was prevented from getting a shot off. In the 65th minute, Rapinoe sprung Cristiane behind the defense, but Marshall’s catch-up speed was just enough for her to slide-tackle the ball out-of-bounds cleanly before Cristiane could get a shot off. That corner kick resulted in an off-target header, as did another one a minute later, with Masar managing to head the ball wide from three yards out. She was almost immediately replaced by Casey Nogueira, a development I found worrying as Nogueira is a deadly finisher.

In the 73rd minute, Cristiane and Kosovare Asllani tried to do some clever passing in the box to get McLeod out-of-position, but they tried one pass too many, and Erin was able to get to the ball. Chicago took another long shot that went wide shortly thereafter. There was a scary moment for the Freedom in the 81st minute as Whitehill fell when trying to clear the ball, instead sending it rolling slowly towards Nogueira. But the Freedom defenders in the area quickly converged, and forced Nogueira to give up the ball to Karen Carney, who got off a good shot but one that McLeod managed to grab. In the 84th minute, Nogueira got her own breakaway. Erin came out to challenge her near the perimeter of the box, but missed. Fortunately for the Freedom, Casey’s shot trickled just wide of the right post. Chicago had one last chance on a good-looking cross in stoppage time, but the player in front of the goal couldn’t get her head to it before it went by.

All in all, the Freedom were fortunate to keep a clean sheet. Some of it was luck, some of it was poor finishing by Chicago, and a lot of it was hard work by the back line and McLeod. At the other end, it’s a bit of a mystery as to why the Freedom attack was so anemic. I wonder a bit if our young Norwegian is having problems adjusting to the scorching weather, as she seemed to disappear for long periods of time during the game.

Interesting developments include Marshall’s first minutes at forward and Brittany Klein’s first few minutes (starting at 87) for the Freedom, period. It will be interesting to see if there’s much more of either.

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