Freedom Insider

By StarCityFan

To make a long story short, I have been persuaded by my friends and fellow fans that my WPS boycott is going rather too far. So I have renewed my season tickets and am getting back into the fannish swing of things. This doesn’t mean that I’ve forgiven Hope Solo, the Atlanta Beat general manager who refuses to admit that Solo still needs to apologize, or the league for not stepping in. And there will still be consequences. I’ve done a lot in support of the Freedom and WPS that I didn’t really enjoy doing very much. That’s done. From here on out, I’m going to do what I like, and the heck with the rest. Fortunately for those of you who like to read this blog, writing about the Freedom is something I very much enjoy doing. So enough about me – let’s move on to that.

How big was Saturday’s win? Just about everyone realized that Saturday’s match against Sky Blue FC, our rival for the fourth and final playoff spot, was a big deal. However, math major that I am, I computed the odds and figured out just how big a deal it was. So I’m going to give the standard win-or-go-home playoff game a 100, that being the difference between the odds of advancing if you win (100%) and if you lose (0%). Doing a quick-and-dirty calculation based on the possibilities ensuing from Saturday’s match, I figured that if the Freedom had lost, they’d have about a 3% chance of making the playoffs – if you simplify the possibilities to just wins and losses, there was only 1 scenario out of a possible 32 that had Washington in the playoffs: the Freedom would have had to win both of their remaining matches, while Sky Blue lost all three of theirs. On the other hand, with a win, there are 26 permutations out of 32 that put the Freedom in the playoffs. Assuming that all possibilities are equally likely, that’s an 81% chance of getting in. So the StarCityFan Significance Factor (SSF) is 81-3, or 78, which isn’t that much less than a playoff match.

How big is Sunday’s game? Thus emboldened by my initial calculations, I put together a more sophisticated model to figure out how important Sunday’s match against Chicago is, given the current standings. I was somewhat surprised at the results. My current estimate of the odds of the Freedom making the playoffs is 70.48%. (I’m only putting in the two decimal places to keep from putting down a very approximate-looking 70%. Even I’m not that anal!) That’s based on weighting all of the possible results of the remaining four relevant matches (two each for the Freedom and Sky Blue), including ties. If Washington wins on Sunday, that goes up to 92.8%. If they lose, that drops to 30.4%. So the SSF is 62, still a pretty big number (A tie leaves them at 80.8%, so not losing is much more important than winning). More significantly, losing would mean that the Freedom have lost control of their destiny: even if they beat Atlanta the following weekend, they could still miss out on the playoffs if Sky Blue wins their two remaining matches.

But how good is Chicago, really? You’d think we wouldn’t have to worry too much about a team that would consider themselves fortunate at this point to finish in fifth place out of seven teams. However, they just had a solid showing against Philadelphia, winning 2-0, and their signing of Spanish international Veronica Boquete, fresh off playing for the undefeated W-League champion Buffalo Flash, has paid dividends already as she got the game-winning goal in that match. With nothing to play for, they would certainly like nothing better than to mess up the Freedom’s finish as they may well have done already with the Independence. Meanwhile, Washington is far and away the worst road team in the league, with a mere one road win on the season, and that one was against the Atlanta Beat before their infusion of Athletica players. But if they’re going to pull one out, now’s the time. You might remember that last year the Freedom went into Chicago needing a win and pulled one out off a superb late goal from Allie Long.

Can the Freedom earn a home playoff game? The surprising answer to this one is yes. If Washington wins out while Philadelphia loses their one remaining match, then the first playoff match will be at the SoccerPlex, just as it was last year. That may seem like a long shot, but really the only unlikely part of it would be Washington beating Chicago. After that, the Freedom come home to play the last place Atlanta Beat. Philadelphia, meanwhile, has to finish by flying to the West Coast and playing FC Gold Pride, who have only lost one home match all season. So, particularly given the Freedom’s road ineptness this year, this is certainly something we should be hoping for.

Bookmark to:

By StarCityFan

Amazingly, despite the months-long drought of wins, the Freedom are still in the driver’s seat when it comes to making the playoffs. They’re competing against the Red Stars, Sky Blue FC and (just barely) the Beat for the fourth and final playoff spot. If they win out, none of those teams can catch them. That may sound tough, but they’re the only one of these teams that has no more matches against teams that are definitely bound for the playoffs, and all but one of their four remaining matches are at home.

Winning out would give them 34 points, but my prediction is that, given the other teams’ schedules and past performance, 29 would probably be sufficient.

The next two matches, both at home, are key as both are against their primary rivals, the Red Stars this Thursday and Sky Blue on Saturday the 28th. Games like these are six-point swings: the difference between winning and losing is the difference between being three points ahead of the opposition or three points behind. Two wins would give the Freedom 28 points with a road match against Chicago and a home match against a floundering Atlanta squad left. Just one point from either of those games should put them over the top, and if it’s not enough, then at least the must-win final match comes against the seventh-place team.

Sky Blue has a game in hand but a much tougher schedule. In addition to playing Washington here, they face the three playoff-bound teams plus Atlanta in Atlanta, where the Beat have actually been able to win a few. The matches against FC Gold Pride, Philadelphia and Boston are at Yurcak Field, which you’d think would be an advantage but has actually been the opposite. Sky Blue is only 1-4-3 on their home soil (guess they haven’t been paying attention to the “Defend Your Turf” campaign).

The Red Stars, other than the home-and-home against the Freedom, play the Independence and Gold Pride in Chicago and would be fortunate to pick up anything more than single points from each of those matches.

The Beat have a home-and-home against the high-flying Boston Breakers, plus they host Gold Pride and Sky Blue before ending the season at the SoccerPlex. They also have a game in hand on the Freedom but are five points back.

Coloring Thursday’s match against the Red Stars will be World Cup qualification matches by various European teams. Sonia Bompastor will be up with the French National Team, while the Red Stars’ Katie Chapman and Karen Carney will be playing for England. Additionally, the Red Stars will be missing defensive stalwart Kate Markgraf due to a concussion. These are all significant absences. Some have expressed a concern over losing Sonia’s presence in the Freedom attack, but I’m more concerned about not having her there to disrupt attacks coming from Washington’s left flank – many’s the time she’s either singlehandedly prevented balls coming in from that corner, or worked with Becky Sauerbrunn to do so.

Bookmark to:

By StarCityFan

The Freedom went through the entire months of June and July without a single victory. You’d think that would kill any hope of making the playoffs, but it hasn’t. In fact, the Freedom are currently in fifth place, one point out of the fourth and final playoff position.

Right now I’m predicting a 2-2-2 finish, which gives them 28 points come the end of the season and should be just enough for the fourth and final playoff spot. Their next game is at Rutgers against a struggling Sky Blue FC team. I’m figuring a tie in that match. After that, they play the league-leading FC Gold Pride on the West Coast, which I doubt they’ll get points out of. Then they finish the season with three out of four games at home: Chicago on Thursday the 19th (one of the games added to the schedule after Athletica folded), Sky Blue on the 28th and Atlanta on September 11. The one final road game is against the Red Stars on September 5. I figure they should be able to get at least two wins and a tie out of that stretch.

All this of course assumes that their performance against Philadelphia on Wednesday night is now the standard, rather than how they’ve played in most of their prior summer matches.

One promising note is that the surprise of Wednesday’s lineup was the lack of surprise: Every player was in her accustomed position on the field: no more benching Cat Whitehill, throwing Nikki Marshall up front, or pulling Sonia Bompastor to the back line. I get the feeling that Jim Gabarra just told the team, “Okay, I’m not going to tweak, I’m just going to put our best XI out their in their best positions. The rest is up to you.” To the relief of Freedom fans everywhere, the team responded, pulling together and working hard for 90 minutes to produce a convincing 2-0 win against the No. 2 team in the league.

So I’m hoping that that result is the new normal, while June and July will become just a bad dream. Last year set a possible template, as the Freedom came off a three-game losing streak going into their final six matches but finished 4-1-1 to make it into third place. That, interestingly, also started with a weeknight match in New Jersey.

And, for what it’s worth, the Freedom had a similar season in 2003, when they started strong, stumbled badly in midseason, then recovered with help from a series of outstanding performances by Abby Wambach to claw into the playoffs in the fourth and final position. From there, they won two consecutive away games, one against the regular-season champions, to claim the final WUSA championship. Let’s hope that history repeats itself this year.

Bookmark to:

By StarCityFan

Washington Freedom (4-6-5, 17 points, 4th place) at Atlanta Beat (3-7-4, 13 points, 7th place)
Wednesday, July 28, 7:30 p.m. EDT
KSU Soccer Stadium, Kennesaw, Ga.
All-time series: Freedom lead 2-0-0
Last meeting: Freedom 2, Beat 0

Once upon a time this looked like an easy three points. Unlike Philadelphia, Atlanta was behaving like a proper expansion team, losing five matches in a row and being little threat to the competition. Of course, that was before the St. Louis Athletica folded and Atlanta picked up a bunch of their key players: Hope Solo, Lori Chalupny, Tina Ellertson, Eniola Aluko and Aya Miyama.

More recently, alas, it’s Washington that’s looked like the expansion team. Since the beginning of June, the Freedom have gone 0-4-4 and are on a three-game losing streak, while the Beat have gone 3-2-3 and are on a two-game winning streak.

When these two teams last played, the Freedom won 2-0 thanks in large part to a stellar, seven-save performance from Erin McLeod in goal. Unfortunately, McLeod is now gone for the season, and Washington will instead rely on their single pickup from the Athletica refugees, rookie goalkeeper Ashlyn Harris. Harris was the primary goalkeeper for the North Carolina Tarheels her sophomore and senior years and split the time her junior year. She’s also spent significant time on the US U-19 and U-21 teams as well as receiving a callup to the full national team last year.

Players to worry about:

Hope Solo – Despite her well-deserved reputation, the Freedom always seem to have Solo’s number. Their all-time record against Team Solo is 2-0-1, with the draw being the first match between the two teams, in which the Freedom managed to claw back from a 3-1 deficit with a header from Sonia Bompastor in stoppage time to eke out a draw. However, this trend is not something we can count on. If Hope is on her usual form, it could be a frustrating night.

Johanna Rasmussen – With Eniola Aluko away on national team duty and Ramona Bachmann not having much impact so far, the Danish forward is the Beat’s primary scoring threat, though with only two goals on the season that’s not saying much. Still, the Freedom’s defense, backed by a rookie goalkeeper, may be vulnerable.

Kia McNeill – If I were to compose a drinking game for this match, one of the entries would be “Kia McNeill fouls Abby Wambach (Double if she gets carded).” And against the Freedom, McNeill has a knack for being in the wrong place at the wrong time: Bompastor scored her aforementioned header goal after the ball bounced off McNeill’s head first, then in last year’s match at RFK Homare Sawa’s shot bounced off McNeill’s leg and into the net for the game-winning goal. We’ll have to see if the Hope/Kia curse holds or gets broken.

Players to root for:

Ashlyn Harris – Well, duh! Goalkeeper staffing has been an adventure for the Freedom through much of the WPS era, first with Erin McLeod’s green card issues, then with coach Nicci Wright having to don the gloves when Kati Jo Spisak got injured while McLeod was on national team duty. On the other hand, there seems to be a WPS tradition of unsung goalkeepers rising to the task, with Jillian Loyden last year earning Player of the Week honors when she stepped in for Hope Solo, and Karen Bardsley this year proving to be All-World after Jenni Branam was injured. Let’s hope Harris is another name to add to this list.

Abby Wambach – My impression is that the key difference between the Freedom and FC Gold Pride last Sunday was that their world-class striker was better than our world-class striker. Abby had as many chances at Marta, but they all seemed to go off-target or right to the goalkeeper. She seemed to start off the year strongly but has faded in the stretch. Washington needs a Player of the Week performance out of her again, and soon.

Sarah Huffman – Huffy would be my Woman of the Match from Sunday. Full of energy and all over the field, she worked hard to make things happen. Her finest moment might have been one occasion when she was triple-teamed when deep on the right flank but nevertheless cut and weaved into enough room to get off a promising-looking cross. We need more of that.

The bottom line is that, barring a possible Sky Blue FC collapse, there are no easy points any more. Atlanta has bolstered its lineup, FCGP is unstoppable, Philadelphia is formidable and Chicago and Boston are getting their acts together. Washington needs to do the same if they’re to remain in the playoff hunt.

Bookmark to:

By StarCityFan

Washington Freedom (4-5-5, 17 points, 4th place) at FC Gold Pride (11-3-1, 34 points, 1st place)
Saturday, July 24, 7 p.m. EDT
Maryland SoccerPlex, Boyds, Md.
All-time series: Even at 2-2-1
Last meeting: Gold Pride 3, Freedom 2

FC Gold Pride and the Freedom have been going in opposite directions since I wrote the preview for their last meeting: the league leaders have won three in a row to pad their lead, while the Freedom have lost two, holding at the same number of standings points. The Freedom in fact have not won a match since downing the Philadelphia Independence, 2-1, at the SoccerPlex on May 30.

With only 10 games left in the season, it’s crunch time. Starting today, Washington plays four games in 12 days that could decide its postseason fate. By the end of the evening on Aug. 4, the Freedom could at best have 29 points, likely good enough for second place and close to clinching a playoff spot, or they could still be mired at 17 points and needing to win most or all of their remaining games to reach the postseason.

Having to play the first-place team in that situation does not bode well, and against Team Marta (Sol last year, Gold Pride this year), Washington is 0-4-1. However, the Freedom did put on a battle the last time these teams faced each other, roaring back from a 3-0 deficit with two late goals to make the game competitive. And I may be a bit biased, but I think that if Kari Seitz had been refereeing that match, Gold Pride would have finished the game with 9 or 10 players. Seitz, you might remember, had the guts to red-card Los Angeles Sol defender Allison Falk in last year’s championship for fouling Natasha Kai when she was the last defender able to interfere with Kai’s attack on goal. Unfortunately for the Freedom, this referee was not so bold, despite one brazen foul and several very arguable ones in similar situations.

Again, I’d like to see Nikki Marshall up top. She gave the Gold Pride back line fits even in the few minutes she played in the prior match, scoring one goal and threatening repeatedly. With Abby Wambach back, that should give the Freedom the “lightning-and-thunder” combination they’ve been missing ever since Lisa De Vanna broke her leg. Lene Mykjåland, alas, has not been living up to expectations – I keep wondering if our Scandinavian is having issues with the heat of this miserable summer.

Sarah Huffman and Allie Long are back from national team camp and should bolster the midfield. If Marshall plays forward, Kristi Eveland will be in the back line, as she was in the previous game against Boston. The defense needs to hang tough for the full 90 minutes, though I think the key won’t be shutting Gold Pride down (practically impossible with Marta, Christine Sinclair and Tiffeny Milbrett up front) so much as scoring enough goals to stay ahead of them. So I’m hoping for an old-fashioned Washington Freedom 4-3 barnburner. Let’s see if they can chalk up their first-ever win against Team Marta.

P.S. There was a preview of last weekend’s Boston Breakers match, but it vanished in the ether somewhere between my email and the website.

[Note from Jim: It is lost somewhere in the website - I had it all ready to go, hit publish and it vanished. I was away from my computer all day Sunday so I couldn't fix the problem and have been traveling since then so my apologies to StarCityFan and all the readers.]

Bookmark to: