Jun 11, 2010 0
Taking stock at the one-third mark
By StarCityFan
The Freedom have now completed eight games of their 24-game season. Let’s take a minute to see where things stand.
Washington has a 4-2-2 record for 14 standings points, tied with Philadelphia for second place in the league. As usual, they’ve scored the most goals as well as given up the most. They’ve played five home matches with a 3-1-1 record and three road matches with a 1-1-1 record, and they have a five-game unbeaten streak going. During those five matches, they’ve given up only three goals after giving up six during the prior three games.
However, their schedule has been fairly easy up to this point, with five home matches and all but one road match against expansion teams. So, really, they ought to be in second place or better. Most of the results so far haven’t been a particular surprise. The exceptions would be losing to the Breakers in the opener and tying FC Gold Pride in the most recent game. Boston’s win is the only one the Breakers have managed this season, while the latest match is the first home game FCGP hasn’t won outright this year. (The loss in Philadelphia was a surprise at the time, but considering how well the Independence have been doing overall, it’s not much of a shock in retrospect.)
Looking ahead, I’m figuring that it’s going to take around 32 standings points to make the playoffs, and, lo and behold, the Freedom are almost halfway there only a third of the way into the season. However, the going gets tougher the rest of the way. So how hard will it be for DC to make the postseason again?
After looking at their remaining schedule, I want to split it into two eight-game chunks. However, the chunks aren’t contiguous, so let me explain.
The toughest part of the Freedom schedule is the 8-game stretch from July 11 through August 14. Only two of these games are at home, with six on the road, and the two home matches are both against teams at the top of the standings: FCGP and the Independence. The road matches include two more in the Bay Area, two against Boston, and one each against Atlanta and Sky Blue FC. I’m figuring, somewhat pessimistically, that the Freedom will go a mere 1-5-2 in this stretch, picking up only five standings points during this “hump” third of the season.
On the other hand, look at the two four-game “shoulder” sequences before and after this difficult patch. Of the next four games, two are at home against the Chicago Red Stars, arguably the most inept of the non-expansion teams this season. The two road matches are against Philadelphia and SBFC. The Independence have been surprisingly formidable, while the defending champions have been surprisingly vulnerable, saved at times only by the brilliant play of their backup goalkeeper, Karen Bardsley. So I’m figuring the Freedom can go 2-1-1 here, winning both home games and tying one of the road games, for seven standings points.
Finally, at the end of the season, three out of four matches are at the Soccerplex (Red Stars, SBFC, Beat), and the only away game is against Chicago. So let’s be optimistic and believe that the Freedom will finish strong, as they did last year, with three wins and a four-game unbeaten streak. That’s a record of 3-0-1 for another 10 standings points.
If you add all that up, you get 36 points, which should be enough not just for a playoff spot but for a home playoff match.
Of course, it’s not going to happen this cleanly. The Freedom will get upset at home but (one hopes) steal some points on the road. This outline might be better used as a guideline for what’s needed and for expectations. Don’t panic if the Freedom go into a midseason slump during the toughest part of their schedule – if they get any more than five points out of that stretch they’re doing well. On the other hand, if they don’t go into that stretch with at least 20 standings points, then they’re going to need more than five out of it.
To conclude, here’s a glance at each of the other teams, in standings order:
FC Gold Pride – Few people are surprised that the team that collected Marta and Camille Abily from last year’s first-place Los Angeles Sol is doing well. Christine Sinclair having a career year doesn’t hurt, either. The WPS’s only West Coast team lost their opener, then won five in a row before being upset by the Red Stars and then tying the Freedom. Their schedule has been balanced (four at home, four away, opponents neither easy nor difficult), so their record seems to have been come by fairly. They’re clearly the team to beat this year.
Philadelphia Independence – By contrast, many people are surprised that an expansion team is in second place at this point. Philly has one of the best playmaking midfielders in the league in Lori Lindsey (am I going to start sounding like a stuck record if I use the phrase “career year” one more time?), top defenders in Heather Mitts and Allison Falk, and not just one but two of the best goalkeepers in Val Henderson and Karina LeBlanc. They got off to a slow start with two draws (one scoreless), but then won four of their next six games. They’ve likewise had a balanced schedule so far, and face a big test this weekend as FCGP comes to play them at West Chester, their first matchup against the league leaders.
Sky Blue FC – The defending champions haven’t been living up to their title, but they’ve been plagued by absences for medical reasons (I’d say injuries, but I think Christie Rampone would take offense). Key players injured have included Natasha Kai, Carli Lloyd and Jenni Branam, with Rampone having just returned from maternity leave. As mentioned before, goalkeeper Bardsley has kept them in the hunt with some sensational performances (“career season”, yadda yadda). They’ve also had a comparatively tough schedule, with five away games to only three home games, and two matches against FCGP already. If they can get healthy, one has to figure they’ll be doing better. At this point, you have to think that these three teams, plus the Freedom, are the ones to expect to see in the 2010 playoffs.
Chicago Red Stars – After firing their coach, the Red Stars rebounded by upsetting FCGP but then played the Atlanta Beat to a scoreless tie. Scoring is a problem (only four goals this season), while the defense and the unsung Jillian Loyden in goal have kept opponents to a league-leading minimum six goals. Their schedule has been easy in some ways but difficult in others: five home games to three away, but they’ve have had to play FCGP twice and St. Louis and Philly once each. The team has more than enough firepower in Kosovare Asllani, Karen Carney, Cristiane and Casey Nogueira to singe the nets if Omid Namazi, their new coach, can light a fire under them. But that remains to be seen.
Boston Breakers – The Breakers have only played seven games to most other teams’ eight, but that doesn’t fully explain their next-to-last position. They haven’t won since their opener against the Freedom. The schedule has been a little on the difficult side: three home, four away, matches against Athletica, FCGP and their nemesis SBFC, whom they’ve never beaten. With four All-Stars on the roster and a future Hall of Fame coach, they should be in contention. Hard to say why they’re not.
Atlanta Beat - So which team has the most players on the All-Star starting roster? Believe it or not, it’s Atlanta, with six. Of course, five of those are recently signed Athletica refugees. (Athletica would be leading with six if they still existed.) Atlanta has been the classic inept expansion team so far this season, with no wins and only two ties in seven matches. It didn’t help that their first four matches were on the road while waiting for their home stadium to be finished, but even at home they’ve struggled, having yet to score a goal in their new stadium. Their schedule has been very unbalanced against them, with only two home games out of seven, and five matches against the top three teams in the league. As a result, they’ll have an easier run the rest of the way. If they can get a shot in the arm from an injection of most of the best Athletica players, then they might climb into the playoff competition. But it’ll be an uphill battle.
The bottom line is that there’s more than enough talent to go around, and with only seven teams each one has a decent share. Before Athletica’s demise, you could have argued that Atlanta didn’t have the talent to compete, but now that they’re “Atlantica,” that’s not going to wash. So, barring a rash of injuries, it becomes a question of who wants it the most, who is the most confident and who can work together as a team the best, rather than the accumulated sheer ability on the roster. The Freedom don’t have a whole lot of marquee names, but they do seem to be pulling together behind Abby Wambach, who’s having a season for the ages. Let’s see who can match them.
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