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Following the Washington Freedom of Women’s Professional Soccer

The state of play

By StarCityFan

To make a long story short, I have been persuaded by my friends and fellow fans that my WPS boycott is going rather too far. So I have renewed my season tickets and am getting back into the fannish swing of things. This doesn’t mean that I’ve forgiven Hope Solo, the Atlanta Beat general manager who refuses to admit that Solo still needs to apologize, or the league for not stepping in. And there will still be consequences. I’ve done a lot in support of the Freedom and WPS that I didn’t really enjoy doing very much. That’s done. From here on out, I’m going to do what I like, and the heck with the rest. Fortunately for those of you who like to read this blog, writing about the Freedom is something I very much enjoy doing. So enough about me – let’s move on to that.

How big was Saturday’s win? Just about everyone realized that Saturday’s match against Sky Blue FC, our rival for the fourth and final playoff spot, was a big deal. However, math major that I am, I computed the odds and figured out just how big a deal it was. So I’m going to give the standard win-or-go-home playoff game a 100, that being the difference between the odds of advancing if you win (100%) and if you lose (0%). Doing a quick-and-dirty calculation based on the possibilities ensuing from Saturday’s match, I figured that if the Freedom had lost, they’d have about a 3% chance of making the playoffs – if you simplify the possibilities to just wins and losses, there was only 1 scenario out of a possible 32 that had Washington in the playoffs: the Freedom would have had to win both of their remaining matches, while Sky Blue lost all three of theirs. On the other hand, with a win, there are 26 permutations out of 32 that put the Freedom in the playoffs. Assuming that all possibilities are equally likely, that’s an 81% chance of getting in. So the StarCityFan Significance Factor (SSF) is 81-3, or 78, which isn’t that much less than a playoff match.

How big is Sunday’s game? Thus emboldened by my initial calculations, I put together a more sophisticated model to figure out how important Sunday’s match against Chicago is, given the current standings. I was somewhat surprised at the results. My current estimate of the odds of the Freedom making the playoffs is 70.48%. (I’m only putting in the two decimal places to keep from putting down a very approximate-looking 70%. Even I’m not that anal!) That’s based on weighting all of the possible results of the remaining four relevant matches (two each for the Freedom and Sky Blue), including ties. If Washington wins on Sunday, that goes up to 92.8%. If they lose, that drops to 30.4%. So the SSF is 62, still a pretty big number (A tie leaves them at 80.8%, so not losing is much more important than winning). More significantly, losing would mean that the Freedom have lost control of their destiny: even if they beat Atlanta the following weekend, they could still miss out on the playoffs if Sky Blue wins their two remaining matches.

But how good is Chicago, really? You’d think we wouldn’t have to worry too much about a team that would consider themselves fortunate at this point to finish in fifth place out of seven teams. However, they just had a solid showing against Philadelphia, winning 2-0, and their signing of Spanish international Veronica Boquete, fresh off playing for the undefeated W-League champion Buffalo Flash, has paid dividends already as she got the game-winning goal in that match. With nothing to play for, they would certainly like nothing better than to mess up the Freedom’s finish as they may well have done already with the Independence. Meanwhile, Washington is far and away the worst road team in the league, with a mere one road win on the season, and that one was against the Atlanta Beat before their infusion of Athletica players. But if they’re going to pull one out, now’s the time. You might remember that last year the Freedom went into Chicago needing a win and pulled one out off a superb late goal from Allie Long.

Can the Freedom earn a home playoff game? The surprising answer to this one is yes. If Washington wins out while Philadelphia loses their one remaining match, then the first playoff match will be at the SoccerPlex, just as it was last year. That may seem like a long shot, but really the only unlikely part of it would be Washington beating Chicago. After that, the Freedom come home to play the last place Atlanta Beat. Philadelphia, meanwhile, has to finish by flying to the West Coast and playing FC Gold Pride, who have only lost one home match all season. So, particularly given the Freedom’s road ineptness this year, this is certainly something we should be hoping for.

Making the playoffs

By StarCityFan

Amazingly, despite the months-long drought of wins, the Freedom are still in the driver’s seat when it comes to making the playoffs. They’re competing against the Red Stars, Sky Blue FC and (just barely) the Beat for the fourth and final playoff spot. If they win out, none of those teams can catch them. That may sound tough, but they’re the only one of these teams that has no more matches against teams that are definitely bound for the playoffs, and all but one of their four remaining matches are at home.

Winning out would give them 34 points, but my prediction is that, given the other teams’ schedules and past performance, 29 would probably be sufficient.

The next two matches, both at home, are key as both are against their primary rivals, the Red Stars this Thursday and Sky Blue on Saturday the 28th. Games like these are six-point swings: the difference between winning and losing is the difference between being three points ahead of the opposition or three points behind. Two wins would give the Freedom 28 points with a road match against Chicago and a home match against a floundering Atlanta squad left. Just one point from either of those games should put them over the top, and if it’s not enough, then at least the must-win final match comes against the seventh-place team.

Sky Blue has a game in hand but a much tougher schedule. In addition to playing Washington here, they face the three playoff-bound teams plus Atlanta in Atlanta, where the Beat have actually been able to win a few. The matches against FC Gold Pride, Philadelphia and Boston are at Yurcak Field, which you’d think would be an advantage but has actually been the opposite. Sky Blue is only 1-4-3 on their home soil (guess they haven’t been paying attention to the “Defend Your Turf” campaign).

The Red Stars, other than the home-and-home against the Freedom, play the Independence and Gold Pride in Chicago and would be fortunate to pick up anything more than single points from each of those matches.

The Beat have a home-and-home against the high-flying Boston Breakers, plus they host Gold Pride and Sky Blue before ending the season at the SoccerPlex. They also have a game in hand on the Freedom but are five points back.

Coloring Thursday’s match against the Red Stars will be World Cup qualification matches by various European teams. Sonia Bompastor will be up with the French National Team, while the Red Stars’ Katie Chapman and Karen Carney will be playing for England. Additionally, the Red Stars will be missing defensive stalwart Kate Markgraf due to a concussion. These are all significant absences. Some have expressed a concern over losing Sonia’s presence in the Freedom attack, but I’m more concerned about not having her there to disrupt attacks coming from Washington’s left flank – many’s the time she’s either singlehandedly prevented balls coming in from that corner, or worked with Becky Sauerbrunn to do so.

Still in the running at the 3/4 mark

By StarCityFan

The Freedom went through the entire months of June and July without a single victory. You’d think that would kill any hope of making the playoffs, but it hasn’t. In fact, the Freedom are currently in fifth place, one point out of the fourth and final playoff position.

Right now I’m predicting a 2-2-2 finish, which gives them 28 points come the end of the season and should be just enough for the fourth and final playoff spot. Their next game is at Rutgers against a struggling Sky Blue FC team. I’m figuring a tie in that match. After that, they play the league-leading FC Gold Pride on the West Coast, which I doubt they’ll get points out of. Then they finish the season with three out of four games at home: Chicago on Thursday the 19th (one of the games added to the schedule after Athletica folded), Sky Blue on the 28th and Atlanta on September 11. The one final road game is against the Red Stars on September 5. I figure they should be able to get at least two wins and a tie out of that stretch.

All this of course assumes that their performance against Philadelphia on Wednesday night is now the standard, rather than how they’ve played in most of their prior summer matches.

One promising note is that the surprise of Wednesday’s lineup was the lack of surprise: Every player was in her accustomed position on the field: no more benching Cat Whitehill, throwing Nikki Marshall up front, or pulling Sonia Bompastor to the back line. I get the feeling that Jim Gabarra just told the team, “Okay, I’m not going to tweak, I’m just going to put our best XI out their in their best positions. The rest is up to you.” To the relief of Freedom fans everywhere, the team responded, pulling together and working hard for 90 minutes to produce a convincing 2-0 win against the No. 2 team in the league.

So I’m hoping that that result is the new normal, while June and July will become just a bad dream. Last year set a possible template, as the Freedom came off a three-game losing streak going into their final six matches but finished 4-1-1 to make it into third place. That, interestingly, also started with a weeknight match in New Jersey.

And, for what it’s worth, the Freedom had a similar season in 2003, when they started strong, stumbled badly in midseason, then recovered with help from a series of outstanding performances by Abby Wambach to claw into the playoffs in the fourth and final position. From there, they won two consecutive away games, one against the regular-season champions, to claim the final WUSA championship. Let’s hope that history repeats itself this year.

Gabarra’s days still numbered?

The Freedom finally snapped that ugly winless streak on Wednesday night with a 2-0 win over Philadelphia. Unfortunately that may not be enough for Jim Gabarra to keep his job, according to the Washington Post’s Steven Goff.

Gabarra has been on the hottest coaching seat of late, and many blogs have weighed in now and whether he should stay or go and my opinion on the matter hasn’t changed. Now it appears Gabarra’s job rests on how well his presentation to his superiors goes on Monday.

With plenty of time to regroup and make a decision before the next match, it will be interesting to see how things shake out and hopefully all of the attention surrounding the Freedom’s coaching situation won’t send the team on another losing streak.

A Blast from the Past

By StarCityFan

[Note from Jim: My apologies once again to StarCityFan, who submitted this to me before the Boston match but because I have been traveling didn't get around to posting until today.]

To those of us who have been Freedom fans since 2001, there’s something special about the original players from the WUSA era. Mystique, aura, frisson, whatever you want to call it, what hangs about them is that these were the first female professional soccer players in American history. They’re pioneers, even if the pioneers were eventually let down by the organizers and management of the league that made them pioneers to start with.

What I’m trying to get at is why I and a bunch of other old-school Freedom fans would take a day off work, travel to the SoccerPlex, and hang outside to watch a meaningless soccer match on a day ridiculously hot and miserable even by the standards of this benighted summer filled with hot and miserable days.

Anyhow, the Freedom announced early in the week that on Friday, July 23, at 4:30 p.m., Washington Freedom Alumni from the WUSA era would take on members of the Montgomery County Police Department in a charity match to raise money for a fund memorializing the family of one of their police officers (Details here for those wanting to know the particulars).

As soon as it was announced, I knew I had to be there. Friend and fellow Freedom Fighter Syed – whom I regularly deliver to the SoccerPlex for WPS matches – felt the same way. We actually arrived almost two hours early, in the hopes of getting a chance to hobnob with our heroines before the match. We made our way first to the site of the match, Field 12, which is immediately behind the Discovery Sports Center, that large building next to the stadium field. I noted that they’d be playing on a short field, the goals lined up across the width of the full field. Staff and interns were still working on setting up. We helped them and chatted with them a little bit, but then retreated to the air conditioned building, eventually finding seating just outside the dressing rooms while we waited for some old familiar faces to show up (That probably sounds kind of stalkerish, but it’s not as if we were lurking in some side corridor – the dressing rooms are right next to the main hallway of the facility).

Cat Whitehill and Abby Wambach were the first to show, I think, and we waved to them. Coaches Jim Gabarra and Nicci Wright went back and forth a couple of times. Eventually a small group of “classic” players wandered by with uniforms in hand: Carrie Moore, Casey Zimny, and Jacqui and Skylar Little, at least (I’ll refer to the players by their maiden names for now to ease confusion). One of the twins pointed at us and said, “And that’s who we’re here for!” They said hello briefly and went into the women’s dressing room.

Sarah Kate Noftsinger showed up down the hall, but then took a call on her cellphone and headed back in the other direction. Jennifer Grubb came through and had to be pointed to the correct room. Mia Hamm wandered by with her little girls in tow, then dropped them off in a small group of people talking with each other before heading back out front. It took me until that moment to realize that the good-looking guy talking with Jim and Cat had to be Mia’s husband, Nomar Garciaparra (What can I say? I’m not much of a baseball fan).

Most of them came out of the dressing room after a bit. They were all wearing WPS-style uniforms but with their classic numbers, except Skate, who for some reason was No. 1 instead of her traditional No. 12. We applauded as they headed down to the field, then followed them, watching as they warmed up. The magic of the afternoon might have been summarized by a short video clip that unfortunately I accidentally deleted: I was taping the players getting some water after warming up when I heard some familiar voices behind me. I turned the camera around to focus on Abby Wambach and Sarah Huffman chatting with diehard fans Stuart and Charlotte (who sit in the first two on-field seats). Some seconds on, Mia Hamm comes down the hill behind them with one daughter holding each hand. She proceeds to the field, leaving the girls with Nomar at the bottom of the hill, and heads out to warm up herself.

I think the starting lineup consisted of Mia Hamm, Sarah Kate Noftsinger, Jennifer Grubb, Carrie Moore, and Skylar Little, with Nicci Wright in goal. But it was pretty much open substitution, even during the run of play, so it was hard to keep track. Mia and Jacqui Little traded off on a regular basis, as did Emmy Barr, Carrie, and Skylar among the defenders.

The Freedom earned a corner kick pretty much off the opening kickoff, but nothing came of it. The MoCo team seemed determined to test Nicci from long-range and kept trying to send shots her way, most of which went way, way over the goal. They eventually settled down and sent a low cross right in front of goal that looked dangerous until a Freedom defender got there first and cleared it.

Jen Grubb looked rusty in the sixth minute when she kicked a ball then went up to about her head level and out about three yards, then had so much backspin on it that it rolled right back to her. Her second attempt at a feed was much more successful. Mia took a shot shortly thereafter that slipped just wide left, then they attempted a cross that the cops defended well and got out of danger.

The police struck the first blow in the eighth minute as one of them sent in a long low shot from about 20 yards out from the left post that slipped by in front of Nicci, bounced off the inside of the right post, and went into the left side netting. That just seemed to make the WUSAers more determined, and they gradually stepped up their level of play until they were dominating possession.

In the 11th minute, Jacqui Little sent in a beautiful cross from the left flank, but the shot went just barely wide right. A minute later, Mia had some space in front of goal and was fed the ball from the right end line. This time she carefully slipped it inside the right post, then turned around and feigned a hamstring injury.

In the 15th minute, Casey Zimny fired a ball in that the opposing goalkeeper had to make a quick reaction save on. A minute later, a Freedom shot went off the right post, then after a good buildup another shot went wide left.

Nicci Wright had a big save of her own as the MoCo team put on some pressure, first another dangerous cross that was cleared but the County got possession back and got off a shot that Nicci had to grab.

In the 17th minute, Mia scored again after a succession of right-left-right crosses, finally getting a good feed from Skate that she put away. Nicci made another big save shortly thereafter, prompting the fans in attendance to burst into a spontaneous (and really bad) rendition of “Oh, Canada.” With time running out in the 20-minute first half, the cops knocked another shot off the left post.

The players gathered the water cooler and then around Jim Gabarra, who told them, “You’ve still got it – maybe not as fast, but you’ve still got it.” Amanda Cromwell, another veteran, also joined them – judging by the bench conversation, she’d misunderstood the start time.

After a few minutes, I made my way over to the “celebrity” tent, where the WPS players in attendance were hanging out. I said hello to Huffy, Becky Sauerbrunn, Erin McLeod and Christie Welsh. After a couple of minutes, General Manager Mark Washo came over to bring out one of the celebrities in attendance, and as he walked back to the field with her I realized to my chagrin that I had walked right past Marta without realizing it. He introduced her, and then she went to the sidelines to make herself available for photographs. There was a tennis-ball toss and a few other halftime events, then the game resumed with Cat Whitehill taking over the announcer’s microphone.

The Freedom continued putting on the pressure, with multiple shots in the first few minutes, but no goals. Most notably, Carrie Moore stole the ball from a MoCo defender and came in on goal with only the keeper to beat but shot it way high. I shouted, “No wonder you’re a defender!” Cat responded – over the loudspeaker – “I heard that!”

Carrie was fouled in the 25th minute for the only disciplinary whistle of the match. We fans shouted for a card just to be obnoxious. The MoCo goalkeeper made another big save shortly thereafter, then the scoring resumed in the 27th as Skate managed to knock a long shot from the left past him and in.

In the 28th minute, Mia looked in good position to send in a nice cross but completely botched it. I reflexively shouted, “What was that?” She turned to me and said something slightly rueful along the lines about she would have done a lot better 10 years ago. I concurred.

Carrie redeemed herself in the 29th minute by scoring from slightly closer in than her previous attempt. Jacqui had an easy putaway a minute later after Mia smoked her defender to get a nice, clean, low cross off. Carrie’s fellow defender Skylar had her moment of ignominy as a cop cross from the right bounced off of her and went in for an own goal.

Play stopped briefly in the 32nd minute as a MoCo player slipped and fell, but was quickly restarted with a dropped ball after it was clear he was okay.

Skylar redeemed herself in the 33rd minute, slipping a ball just barely inside the left post and out of the goalkeeper’s reach, belying my insinuation that defenders can’t aim. Jennifer Grubb closed out the scoring in the 38th minute with a shot from about the top of the box and directly out from goal.

As we entered stoppage time, goalkeeper Nicci Wright claimed a County ball coming in from the left, dropped it at her feet, and took off at high speed for the opposing team’s goal. Much to both her and our disappointment, though, the whistle blew before she even reached midfield. The final score, by my reckoning, was 7-2 (I know it’s generally been reported as 8-2, but I watched the replay of my own video and only counted seven). For those who want to see all or part of the game, I’ve put the first half online at Vimeo. I haven’t had the chance to upload the high-scoring second-half yet, but once I do, I’ll add a comment pointing to it below.

The celebration of the Freedom veterans continued the following evening as they were all invited to watch the WPS match that evening and were introduced to the crowd at halftime. And, just for the record, here are their new last names:

Emmy Barr – Giannoni
Jacqui Little – Rimando (married to the former DC United goalkeeper)
Skylar Little – Meinhardt
Carrie Moore – O’Keeffe
Lindsay Stoecker – Gerardo (showed up for the WPS match but did not participate Friday)

Meredith Beard (née Florance, but she was already Beard when she played for the Freedom) was also at the WPS match only. Amy Gray’s name was announced, but she was not in attendance.

The capper on it all though, was the long-awaited announcement that the next member of the Hall of Freedom was WUSA captain and ironwoman Jennifer Grubb. Our host here on this blog can assure you that when he worked for the Freedom I gave him no end of grief on what I considered an egregious snubbing of Captain Grubb. So I was delighted when that was finally remedied.

And to close I will just note that on a 100-degree day with miserable humidity one player and one player only stayed on the field the whole time: Jennifer Grubb, ironwoman to the end.

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